Where traders and forecasts disagree about how hot it gets.
Kalshi runs a market on each day's high temperature in 24 US cities. We put every one next to 82 weather model runs and the live readings from the thermometer that decides it.
Biggest disagreement today: Minneapolis
Traders favor 73° to 74° at 55¢. Forecast models lean toward 69° to 70° at 44%, and give the traders' pick 4%.
See the full Minneapolis market| Market price | High | Forecast odds |
|---|---|---|
18¢ | 75° or above | <1%−17 points versus market |
55¢ | 73–74° | 4%−51 points versus market |
21¢ | 71–72° | 26% |
4¢ | 69–70° | 44%+41 points versus market |
2¢ | 67–68° | 22%+21 points versus market |
<1¢ | 66° or below | 3% |
All cities
| City | Traders favor | Models favor | Biggest gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City54° so far | 61–62° 62¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Miami80° so far | 85–86° 72¢ | 85–86° 41% | −30 on 85–86° |
| Los Angeles67° so far | 73–74° 44¢ | 75° or above 39% | −12 on 73–74° |
| Chicago55° so far | 72–73° 52¢ | 70–71° 46% | −29 on 72–73° |
| Atlanta62° so far | 76–77° 71¢ | 74–75° 36% | −38 on 76–77° |
| Philadelphia56° so far | 67–68° 48¢ | Unavailable | – |
| San Francisco64° so far | 69–70° 42¢ | 67–68° 27% | −18 on 69–70° |
| Austin64° so far | 85–86° 70¢ | 83–84° 38% | −45 on 85–86° |
| Denver55° so far | 76–77° 45¢ | 78–79° 37% | +32 on 78–79° |
| Phoenix77° so far | 83° or below 34¢ | 83° or below 59% | +25 on 83° or below |
| Washington, DC58° so far | 68–69° 64¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Boston51° so far | 54–55° 62¢ | 54–55° 44% | +23 on 52–53° |
| Dallas64° so far | 81–82° 70¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Houston74° so far | 83–84° 63¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Seattle49° so far | 65–66° 41¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Oklahoma City60° so far | 78–79° 59¢ | 76–77° 37% | −32 on 78–79° |
| Minneapolis56° so far | 73–74° 55¢ | 69–70° 44% | −51 on 73–74° |
| New Orleans69° so far | 77–78° 69¢ | 77–78° 31% | −37 on 77–78° |
| San Antonio65° so far | 85–86° 61¢ | 83–84° 38% | −36 on 85–86° |
| Trenton55° so far | 64–65° 67¢ | 64–65° 43% | −23 on 64–65° |
| Las Vegas71° so far | 84° or above 49¢ | 80–81° 30% | −38 on 84° or above |
| Newark56° so far | 64–65° 63¢ | 64–65° 41% | −22 on 64–65° |
| San Diego67° so far | 78–79° 56¢ | 78–79° 27% | −28 on 78–79° |
| Louisville55° so far | 74–75° 55¢ | 72–73° 37% | +31 on 72–73° |
| City | Traders favor | Models favor | Biggest gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York City | 65–66° 53¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Miami | 84–85° 46¢ | 82–83° 31% | −29 on 84–85° |
| Los Angeles | 70–71° 40¢ | 68–69° 33% | −20 on 70–71° |
| Chicago | 72–73° 53¢ | 70–71° 35% | −34 on 72–73° |
| Atlanta | 78–79° 50¢ | 76–77° 32% | −32 on 78–79° |
| Philadelphia | 70–71° 55¢ | Unavailable | – |
| San Francisco | 65–66° 37¢ | 65–66° 28% | −18 on 67–68° |
| Austin | 86–87° 55¢ | 86–87° 33% | −21 on 86–87° |
| Denver | 73–74° 35¢ | 77–78° 22% | −20 on 73–74° |
| Phoenix | 87° or above 36¢ | 87° or above 20% | −15 on 87° or above |
| Washington, DC | 69–70° 59¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Boston | 63–64° 53¢ | 61–62° 29% | −26 on 63–64° |
| Dallas | 85–86° 51¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Houston | 84–85° 59¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Seattle | 58–59° 45¢ | Unavailable | – |
| Oklahoma City | 82–83° 46¢ | 80–81° 30% | −29 on 82–83° |
| Minneapolis | 76–77° 45¢ | 71° or below 32% | −34 on 76–77° |
| New Orleans | 81–82° 48¢ | 79–80° 27% | −28 on 81–82° |
| San Antonio | 85–86° 65¢ | 85–86° 31% | −34 on 85–86° |
| Trenton | 68–69° 61¢ | 66–67° 34% | −37 on 68–69° |
| Las Vegas | 75–76° 32¢ | 73–74° 26% | −15 on 75–76° |
| Newark | 68–69° 43¢ | 68–69° 35% | −16 on 70–71° |
| San Diego | 72–73° 44¢ | 67° or below 48% | +45 on 67° or below |
| Louisville | 74–75° 53¢ | 72–73° 31% | −32 on 74–75° |